Major blow for millions of Aussies with a mortgage – as Reserve Bank boss makes a grim admission

The Reserve Bank has declared it’s in no rush to cut interest rates after surprising financial markets this month by keeping them on hold.

The minutes of that July 8 meeting, released on Tuesday, have revealed the RBA’s monetary policy board was worried about cutting rates again too soon, on the back of relief in February and May.

‘They believed that lowering the cash rate a third time within the space of four meetings would be unlikely to be consistent with the strategy of easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner to achieve the board’s inflation and full employment objectives,’ it said.

‘While the flow of recent data had been broadly in line with earlier forecasts, they judged that some data had been slightly stronger than expected.’

The RBA this month kept rates on hold at 3.85 per cent, surprising economists at the Big Four banks and financial markets, which had regarded relief as a 97 per cent chance.

The experts had expected a July 8 cut after monthly headline inflation data for May showed the consumer price index falling to just 2.1 per cent, putting it on the low side of the Reserve Bank’s two to three per cent target. 

They had ruled out the RBA waiting until August 12 following the late July release of June quarter inflation data.

But the Reserve Bank minutes said the monetary policy board needed to be more confident that inflation would stay at the mid-point of its two to three per cent target and not creep higher again. 

The Reserve Bank has declared it’s in no rush to cut interest rates after surprising financial markets this month by keeping them on hold (pictured is a Commonwealth Bank branch in Sydney)

The minutes of that July 8 meeting, released on Tuesday, have revealed the RBA’s monetary policy board was worried about cutting rates again too soon, on the back of relief in February and May (pictured is Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock)

‘Several indicators had been in line with, or even slightly stronger than, staff projections, pointing to the benefit of waiting for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to be at 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis,’ it said.

The Reserve Bank’s July meeting minutes also expressed concern about headline inflation increasing from late 2025, following the expiry of $75 quarterly electricity rebates in December.

‘Looking ahead, headline inflation was expected to pick up temporarily to around the top of the target range in late 2025 and remain there in 2026, reflecting the currently legislated unwinding of government energy subsidies to households,’ it said. 

Financial markets are now less certain the Reserve Bank will cut rates at its next meeting on August 12, with the 30-day interbank futures market regarding relief as a 51 per cent chance.

But it is still expecting the RBA cash rate to fall to 3.1 per cent by the end of this year, implying three more rate cuts. 

Unemployment last month shot up to 4.3 per cent, marking the highest jobless rate since November 2021, when Sydney and Melbourne were emerging from Covid lockdowns.